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markets is watching the amazing rebound in the series to a 5-1/2 month high. |
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This volatility stems largely from the usual seasonal adjustment snafus that crop up through the holiday season and into the early part of January. Moreover, those problems were probably exacerbated in the latest week by the impact of severe winter storms in the Pacific Northwest (flooding) and the Southeast (ice). Therefore, the markets will likely overlook the initial claims series which has never been a very reliable indicator of the strength in the US labor market. |
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US Dec APICS Business Outlook Index edges lowerThe Dec APICS Business Outlook Index slipped by 0.9 points to 47.6. APICS said that the Dec index pointed to ''sluggish but positive growth in manufacturing activity during the first quarter of 1999." The future component fell by 1.3 points to 49.1, while the current component slipped by 0.5 points to 41.1. All in all, the sluggish readings in the Dec APICS index are in line with expectations for continued softness in the US manufacturing sector. That, along with the export industries, have been the hardest hit by the impact of the Asian crisis and the lingering impact of the surge in the dollar seen from the spring of 1995 through the first half of this year. |
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US Dec regional Purchasing Managers indexes are mixedThe Dec Chicago-area Purchasing Managers index climbed by +0.7 points to 50.9%. That pointed to a small acceleration in the region's manufacturing activity. Strength in the headline index stemmed from gains in the production, order backlog, and inventories sub-indexes. However, the prices-paid, employment, and supplier deliveries indexes all fell, while the new orders index held steady. |
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Specifically, the prices paid index plunged by 9.5 points to a new 49-1/2 year low of 34.1%. That drop points to plunging input prices and should reinforce the slide seen in the CRB index in recent months. The employment index plunged by 7.8 points to a 2-1/2 year low of 44.4%. |
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